![]() ![]() And high-resolution weather models won’t begin to home in on the specifics - wind speed, temperatures, etc. It’s important to remember that this weather event is still a little under a week away. If the likelihood of Diablo winds increases, how strong can we expect them to be? ![]() There’s a potential for drizzle on the coast Tuesday and Wednesday, and the chance for dry offshore winds is still lurking in the model runs. This inside-slider scenario would mean dry, north-northeast winds spinning down into the Bay Area and Southern California. In both models, we see that their average range of outcomes keeps the center of next week’s low closer to the Great Basin of Nevada. #Big weather forecast plus#Updated to include drought zones while tracking water shortage status of your area, plus reservoir levels and a list of restrictions for the Bay Area’s largest water districts.Īs of Friday, the ensembles for both the European and American models seem to be trending away from Diablo and Santa Ana winds, but it hasn’t been ruled out yet. The ensembles’ averages keep the low-pressure system (shaded blue) hovering through the deserts of Nevada, far from the coast. The average of the American (left) and European (right) weather models’ ensembles for Tuesday night and Wednesday. This range of possibilities is called an ensemble. It’s a lot like playing an intense game of chess, where you think of all the moves you can make on your opponent before moving the final chess piece. But when there is a wide range of possibilities - like what we have on tap for next week - it makes more sense to look at every possible run that the model could’ve made. ![]() Normally, one run is enough for a quiet weather forecast. Weather models can churn out more than just one possibility when they’re run. This is where weather ensembles come into play. Thankfully, meteorologists have a trick up their sleeves to deal with challenging weather forecasts like these. the Diablos in NorCal and Santa Anas in SoCal.īecause of the dance between the two oscillations, weather models are struggling to capture which one of these two scenarios will play out. The system would not catch any moisture, and instead the state would be left with dry, offshore winds - a.k.a. This is an “inside slider” scenario, meaning the center of the low-pressure system will slide into the Great Basin that stretches across Nevada and Utah. This scenario would steer the low-pressure system away from the Pacific. The American model, on the other hand, places the high closer to the West Coast. This scenario would also bring cool temperatures to the Sierra Nevada and could support a few flurries and snow showers at some of the highest peaks. This would mean the Bay Area could see a good coating of precipitation just one month after a solid September rainstorm, which generally quelled wildfire behavior in Northern California. ![]() If that happens, the low-pressure system will be able to pick up moisture from the Pacific and bring a chance of rain and drizzles to Northern California. The European model keeps the high-pressure system closer to the Gulf of Alaska, which would let a low-pressure system roll into the California-Nevada border region. The high can either move away from the coast and let beneficial moisture track into California or shield us from it. This is important, because the battle of these two oscillations will decide what happens next Tuesday and Wednesday to the high-pressure system that could usher in Diablo winds. ![]()
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